This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1564593423-118394-2792
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS02 KWNS 311716
SWODY2
SPC AC 311716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the northern and central Plains on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An upper high will remain centered over NM, with the broader ridge
over the Rockies and Plains. Northern and eastern portions of this
ridge will weaken over time, from the northern Plains into the MO
Valley, with bouts of thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure
will remain over the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, with a weak
low from western KS into the OK Panhandle. A moist air mass with 60s
F dewpoints will remain over the northern Plains, with upper 60s F
to 70s from eastern KS southward. The combination of a moist and
unstable air mass coupled with minor disturbances rounding the upper
ridge will create opportunities for strong to severe storms over
parts of the central and northern Plains.

Elsewhere, a weakening upper trough over the East will maintain cool
temperatures aloft and foster daytime thunderstorms, but with weak
winds aloft.

...Northern Plains...
Strong heating will lead to an uncapped and unstable air mass over
eastern MT and western ND, with MUCAPE values in excess of 2000
J/kg. Scattered storms are expected to develop within this air mass,
along a weak wind shift south of the Canadian border. Winds below
300 mb will be weak, but the steep lapse rates and sufficient
instability may support disorganized, marginally severe hail or wind
for a few hours.

...Central Plains...
A moist and unstable air mass will exist north and east of the weak
surface low over KS, and will extend westward toward the CO Front
Range where easterly winds will maintain low-level moisture and
upslope. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to form over
southeast WY and central CO, and will continue east/southeastward
across eastern CO with at least a marginal hail and wind threat.
Weakly veering winds with height suggest cells initially, then
merging outflows and gusty winds later in the day.

To the east, a few cells are possible over east-central KS late in
the afternoon, but a greater coverage of storms is likely after 00Z
from the KS/NE border into eastern KS where lift will be aided by a
40 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Elevated hail appears to be the
main concern.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Jewell.. 07/31/2019

$$


------------=_1564593423-118394-2792
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1564593423-118394-2792--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)