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ACUS48 KWNS 310845
SWOD48
SPC AC 310844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will prevail over the Four Corners region through the
upcoming weekend. A shortwave trough should move eastward from
Alberta into Saskatchewan and the adjacent northern Plains on Day
4/Saturday. Modestly enhanced winds with this shortwave trough may
overspread parts of the northern Plains by Saturday afternoon. Some
severe risk may develop from eastern MT into the Dakotas, but the
forecast combination of shear and instability appears too marginal
to include 15% severe probabilities at this time.

By late this weekend into early next week, medium-range guidance
indicates that the upper ridge will flatten somewhat across the
northern CONUS as a shortwave trough advances eastward across Canada
while amplifying. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this
upper trough should overlap sufficient buoyancy across parts of the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and perhaps Great Lakes
region from Day 5/Sunday into Day 6/Monday. This will probably
support at least some severe thunderstorm potential across these
regions. These storms should be focused along a southward-moving
cold front. However, differences regarding the timing/amplitude of
the upper trough and frontal position remain evident at this
extended time frame. Therefore, predictability is too low to include
15% severe delineations at this time.

..Gleason.. 07/31/2019


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