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ACUS03 KWNS 310729
SWODY3
SPC AC 310728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across
the contiguous United States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper ridging will continue to dominate much of the
western/central CONUS on Friday. On the eastern periphery of this
ridge, a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough may exist
over parts of the central Plains into the MO Valley. This shortwave
trough may continue moving southward through the day, and could
potentially support renewed convection into parts of the
central/southern Plains into the lower MS Valley by peak afternoon
heating. There are large differences amongst guidance regarding the
strength of the mid-level winds attendant to this shortwave trough,
as well as the magnitude of a corridor of potential surface-based
instability across eastern KS/OK and vicinity Friday afternoon.
These differences result in too much uncertainty to include even
marginal severe probabilities across this region at this time.

A separate, positively tilted upper trough is forecast to move
northeastward across the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia
through the period. Glancing large-scale ascent may overspread
portions of the northern Rockies Friday afternoon, which may aid
isolated thunderstorm development. Low-level moisture is forecast to
remain quite meager across this region even as mid-level
southwesterly flow increases. Accordingly, the potential for
organized severe storms currently appears low.

Elsewhere, generally weak flow will likely limit severe potential
with thunderstorms developing across parts of the northern Plains,
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, and the central/southern
Rockies.

..Gleason.. 07/31/2019

$$


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