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ACUS02 KWNS 310601
SWODY2
SPC AC 310600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the northern and central Plains on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A convectively enhanced mid-level perturbation will likely move
around the apex of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest and
southern Plains on Thursday. This perturbation should encourage
convective development across parts of the northern/central High
Plains Thursday afternoon. Farther east, an upper trough will move
eastward off the East Coast and over the Canadian Maritimes.

At the surface, a cold front will decelerate and become nearly
stationary across parts of the Southeast by Thursday afternoon. At
least scattered thunderstorms should form along/ahead of the front,
but weak shear will likely preclude an organized severe threat
across this region.

Across the central Plains, a surface low should gradually deepen
over western/central KS through the day. A baroclinic zone will
likely reach across KS to the north and east of the low. A separate
weak surface boundary should also be present across parts of the
northern Plains. This front will probably extend from eastern MT
into ND and perhaps northern MN by Thursday evening.

...Central Plains...
Mainly elevated convection should be ongoing Thursday morning across
eastern KS into western MO in a low-level warm air advection regime.
These storms should quickly weaken as a low-level jet diminishes
through the morning. Farther west, modest low-level upslope flow
across parts of the central High Plains and weak ascent associated
with the previously mentioned mid-level perturbation should initiate
convection across the higher terrain of CO and southeastern WY by
Thursday afternoon. As this activity spreads eastward into the
central High Plains, it should encounter a weak to moderately
unstable airmass along/south of a baroclinic zone. Even though
mid-level westerly flow is not forecast to be overly strong across
this region, a veering wind profile from the surface through mid
levels should result in enough shear to support some updraft
organization. Isolated large hail and damaging winds may occur with
the strongest storms.

Convective initiation along a baroclinic zone across KS and southern
NE Thursday afternoon appears highly uncertain due to capping
issues. But, any storm that develops would be capable of producing
severe hail/wind given strong instability and sufficient shear
forecast. A southerly low-level jet is expected to rapidly
strengthen to around 35-40 kt Thursday evening across KS into
southern NE. Robust convection appears likely along and north of the
surface boundary in response. Moderate to locally strong MUCAPE and
increasing shear should promote a risk for isolated large hail in
the early, more discrete stage of storm development. There may also
be a narrow window of opportunity for a tornado with any
surface-based storms along the surface boundary from parts of
north-central into northeastern KS early Thursday evening as the
low-level jet strengthens.

...Northern Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered storms should form by Thursday
afternoon along a weak surface boundary extending west to east
across parts of the northern Plains. Although mid-level
west-northwesterly flow should be limited to no more than 20-25 kt,
a moist low-level airmass to the south of this front will become
moderately to strongly unstable by peak afternoon heating. Loosely
organized thunderstorm clusters appear possible, and strong to
damaging winds may occur as storms develop east-southeastward in a
well-mixed boundary layer with steepened low-level lapse rates.
Marginally severe hail may also be noted with the strongest cores.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Gleason.. 07/31/2019

$$


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