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ACUS11 KWNS 302253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302252
NDZ000-MTZ000-310015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Areas affected...Eastern MT...Far Southwest ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302252Z - 310015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and a few strong wind gusts are possible with
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...There have been numerous attempts at deep convection
across east-central MT (i.e. over Garfield and McCone counties).
Thus far, these attempts have unsuccessful, likely as a result of
warm temperatures aloft and the resulting convective inhibition.
However, deeper convection and lightning has been noted recently.
Some convective inhibition is likely still in place but favorable
vertical shear and persistent moisture convergence may help overcome
this inhibition, allowing the storms to strengthen and persist
longer. Any more persistent storms could produce large hail and/or
strong outflow winds.

Farther west (near Musselshell and Petroleum Counties), a storm has
recently intensified as it moves into an air mass characterized by
better low-level and modest buoyancy. This discrete storms could
produce isolated large hail and/or strong wind gusts.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 07/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   47710712 47880481 46920341 45510490 46530857 47710712



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