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ACUS11 KWNS 302232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302232
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-310000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019
Areas affected...the Northeast.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302232Z - 310000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds may continue east of watch 545
for an hour or two. No downstream watch is expected.
DISCUSSION...Storms in watch 545 have had a history of producing
damaging winds this afternoon and will continue to move eastward
into the evening. Some of these storms will likely exit the eastern
edge of watch 545 by 2330Z to 00Z. The downstream air mass is hot
and humid with MLCAPE at or above 1500 J/kg which would support a
continued severe threat, but instability, and thus storm intensity,
are expected to decrease around the time the storms will move out of
watch 545. Therefore, while a localized threat may continue east of
watch 545 for 1 to 2 hours, the limited duration of the threat
precludes the need for a downstream watch.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 44987166 45357123 45387021 44747003 44107043 42427180
42307257 42357314 42457397 44987166
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