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ACUS11 KWNS 302200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302200
AZZ000-310000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Areas affected...Southern AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 302200Z - 310000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated strong wind gusts will extend into the
evening as storms move into south-central AZ from the southeast.

DISCUSSION...Air mass is moist and modestly buoyant, with recent
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Temperatures
are bit cooler and the boundary layer less mixed (i.e. to about 8 or
9 kft) across far southeast AZ. In contrast, temperatures across
south-central AZ are in the upper 90s/low 100s and the boundary
layer is mixed to around 15 kft. The potential exists for storms to
develop across far southeast/far south-central AZ and then move
northwestward into the well-mixed air mass across south-central AZ
(i.e. in and around the eastern Sonoran Desert). Strong outflow
winds are possible with a few of the more robust storms.

Far southeast AZ has remained storm free so far this afternoon.
Current visible satellite still shows mostly clear skies. The clear
skies and lack of convective may be related to subsidence behind the
MCV east of Phoenix. As this MCV continues northwestward, a
potential increase in thunderstorms is possible in this area. Recent
increase in lightning near the southern NM/AZ border raises
confidence in that scenario. Storm motion would eventually take
these storms into the Lower Desert, with a resulting threat for
damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 07/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   32891287 33621264 33711133 32421026 31341071 31841241
            32891287



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