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ACUS11 KWNS 302149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302148
TXZ000-302315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 302148Z - 302315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms in southeast Texas will continue to
move southwest into the evening. Severe wind gusts and isolated
large hail will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms are moving southwest into a hot and
humid airmass with MLCAPE around 2500 to 3000 J/kg. Effective shear
is around 25 knots per HGX VWP which will continue to support mostly
multicell clusters. Initial strong updrafts are leading to MESH
cores around 1.5 to 2 inches, but considering the high freezing
levels (~16kft), and the very warm boundary layer, significant
melting is likely reducing hail size and thus the threat for large
hail will probably remain isolated.

This very warm and deeply mixed boundary layer has provided an
environment that is quite favorable for downdrafts with DCAPE around
1300 to 1600 J/kg across this region. Therefore, expect the primary
threat to be damaging winds from collapsing cores on the leading
edge of the south and westward moving outflow boundary from the
ongoing storm cluster including the Houston metro area for the next
1 to 2 hours.

A watch is unlikely given the marginal nature of the threat and the
localized threat area.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29329459 30059441 31079448 31369468 31409618 30979680
            29939698 28659635 28639560 28959472 29329459



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