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AWUS01 KWNH 310241
FFGMPD
AZZ000-310800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0690
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1041 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Areas affected...portions of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310239Z - 310800Z

Summary...Hourly rates of 1-2 in/hr will likely continue for
another several hours across portions of central to western AZ.
These rates will extend the flash flood threat with potential for
an additional 2-3 inches on a localized basis.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0210Z showed several small
clusters of thunderstorms scattered across central and southern AZ
with an average movement toward the north and west. Numerous
outflow boundaries were noted on local radar imagery with
collisions prompting additional thunderstorm development. None of
the thunderstorm clusters were particularly organized, but 00Z
soundings from TUS, PSR and FGZ all showed anomalous precipitable
water values ranging from 1 to 1.8 inches (with 2.1 inches at Yuma
from 22Z), high relative humidity above the LFC and average
850-300 mb winds of ~10 kt or less. Instability was greatest
across southern portions of the state with estimates of 1000-3000
J/kg MLCAPE while instability in northern locations was more
limited (45 J/kg MLCAPE at FGZ from their 00Z sounding).

Over the next 3-5 hours, a continued general movement of
convection off toward the west, and slightly north, is
anticipated. While weak 850-700 mb flow and outflow propagation
will keep rainfall residency over any given location fairly short,
1 to 2 hours at most, rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are likely given
the environment in place and recent rain rate history of cells
from the afternoon. Short term forecasts indicate the development
of an MCV over central AZ by 09Z with increasing 700 mb flow from
the south on its eastern flank. Therefore, while there may be a
temporary weakening of convection after 06Z or 07Z with waning
instability and increased low level CIN, there could be a
secondary surge of convection in and around 12Z across portions of
central or southern AZ. Trends will continue to be monitored for
this potential later in the night.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...

LAT...LON   35461270 35351134 34741060 32561060 31381139
            31741333 32531400 34031400 34861374


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