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ACUS11 KWNS 310130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310129
NDZ000-MTZ000-310300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Areas affected...Eastern MT...Far Southwest ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...

Valid 310129Z - 310300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
strong wind gusts continues across eastern MT and far southwest ND.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are ongoing across
east-central MT with another storm about to cross the international
border into Daniels County (in far northeast MT). Thermodynamic
environment is characterized by surface temperatures in the mid 80s,
dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s, and mid-level lapse rates over
7.5 degrees C per km. This results in moderate buoyancy, with
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Kinematic
environment consists of southeasterly surface winds beneath moderate
westerly flow aloft. Resulting effective bulk shear is around 40-45
kt.

This overall environment is supportive of a continued severe
thunderstorm risk, with both large hail and strong wind gusts
possible. The loss of daytime heating will lead to gradual increase
in convective inhibition, likely leading to storm weakening.
However, the robust and well-organized character of the ongoing
storms will likely mitigate this weakening trend somewhat, with the
severe threat expected to persist for at least the next few hours.

..Mosier.. 07/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46410617 48730632 48920446 47890371 46190323 45590530
            46410617



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