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ACUS02 KWNS 301736
SWODY2
SPC AC 301735

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...AND FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible over the northern High
Plains, over parts of eastern Nebraska,Kansas, and western Missouri,
and over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper high will remain centered over CO and NM, with anticyclonic
flow aloft across the northern Rockies, Plains, and Upper MS Valley.
Rounding this ridge will be a low-amplitude feature which will
induce stronger winds aloft from eastern NE and KS into western MO,
while a low develops over western KS during the afternoon with
strong heating. Southerly winds will bring substantial low-level
moisture northward into eastern KS. Here, southwesterly 850 mb winds
will support elevated storms, and perhaps a few surface based. To
the east, a weak upper trough will remain from the Northeast
southward across the Appalachians, providing cool temperatures aloft
and supporting daytime storms. Elsewhere, a weak surface trough will
exist over the northern High Plains, and may interact with a plume
of mid 60s F dewpoints and produce isolated strong storms from MT
into ND late in the day.

...Eastern Nebraska and Kansas into northwest Missouri...
Areas of storms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning on the
nose of the low level jet, from eastern NE into northwest MO. While
the low-levels will be relatively cool and stable, sufficient
elevated instability may be present to support hail. Redevelopment
is expected late in the day, on the western periphery of the earlier
activity, and where a strong instability gradient will exist. While
model details are unclear, there will likely be a zone of enhanced
SRH which would conditionally support supercells. Large hail will be
the most likely threat, but a tornado cannot be ruled out should
storms ride along the northwest-southeast oriented boundary. A wind
threat may also materialize should a portion of the activity be
surface based/west of the effective boundary.

...Eastern Montana into Northern North Dakota...
Strong heating will produce steep low-level lapse rates over the
northern Plains, beneath modest west/northwesterlies aloft. Though
convergence will be weak, lack of any capping should allow for a few
storms to form during the afternoon, and continue eastward into a
weakly capped air mass. Straight hodographs, but relatively weak
winds in the low-levels suggest mixed storm mode with both hail and
wind threat.

...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast...
A weak midlevel trough will remain over much of the East, but
low-to-mid level winds will continue to decrease, down from the
previous day.  Still, the presence of a moist air mass with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F combined with daytime heating
will lead to scattered storms throughout the region, aided by weak
low-level convergence within a surface trough. A few strong wind
gusts cannot be ruled out during the afternoon, but will likely be
quite isolated.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Jewell.. 07/30/2019

$$


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