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ACUS11 KWNS 301700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301659
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-301900-
Mesoscale Discussion 1613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019
Areas affected...portions of the Northeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301659Z - 301900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts is expected to
gradually increase this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch may
be required for parts of the area.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a cu field along
the higher terrain of the Appalachians gradually
increasing/deepening, ahead of a couple of weak cyclonic
disturbances -- both at the surface and aloft -- crossing the upper
Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes region.
As heating of the seasonally moist boundary layer across the region
continues, boosting afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1000
to 1500 J/kg range, storms will gradually intensify locally. Given
a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, on the eastern fringe
of the main upper trough crossing the Great Lakes/Midwest, locally
intense, relatively fast moving storms/storm clusters will likely
evolve. The strongest of the storms are expected to become capable
of producing locally gusty winds, along with minor damage potential,
through late afternoon. We will continue to monitor convective
evolution, with WW issuance to be considered over parts of the
region in the next hour or so.
..Goss/Hart.. 07/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 45047239 43817287 42957409 40767711 39907809 39837934
40367941 41587835 43527621 45017453 45047239
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