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AWUS01 KWNH 301621
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-302215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0688
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1221 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Areas affected...LA...Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301615Z - 302215Z

Summary...Flash flooding potential continues as heavy rain falls
across the already saturated soils of central LA through the next
couple of hours.  Expect this activity to eventually move south
and west toward southwest LA into eastern TX through mid/late
afternoon.  Hourly rain rates are likely to exceed an inch in some
locations, with 6-hourly storm total rainfall anticipated to be
over 4 inches with locally higher amounts.

Discussion...Radar estimated 5+ inches has fallen across central
LA and heavy rain continues to fall in this region.  With activity
back-building and training across central LA, flash flooding is
likely to continue across this region through the next couple of
hours.

Strong divergence aloft, coupled with mid-level impulses moving
atop a weak stationary surface front will promote strong lift
across this region over the next several hours.  Upon further
investigation, an 850mb front positioned just to the southeast of
the surface boundary will likely aid in the continual
back-building/training of precipitation. Given this Corfidi
vectors stay well aligned with the mean flow.  With precipitable
water values above 2 inches and strong instability to the
southwest of 3000+ J/kg, we expected efficient rainmakers through
the afternoon.

As the 850mb front and precipitable water gradient sags south with
increasing storm motions toward the southwest, we do expect this
activity to eventually forward propagate by early afternoon,
moving into better instability as mentioned above.  This should
help activity scatter and also reduce the magnitude of training
across southwestern LA into southeastern TX.  So while we do
anticipate the flash flood potential to reduce through the
afternoon as this activity moves south and west, hourly rain rates
are still expected to exceed 1-2 inches/hour which could become
problematic, especially across more urbanized locations.

Storm total rainfall expected over the next 6 hours (4+ inches,
locally higher per latest hi-res models) still highlights the best
potential for flash flooding to occur across central LA where
ongoing heavy rain is falling across saturated soils/lower FFG.
As this activity shifts south and west, these areas have not been
worked over and thus have higher FFG resulting in a lesser chance
of Flash Flooding across southwest LA/southeast TX.

Pagano

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32139252 31719141 30809051 29329049 29539172
            29739350 29539449 30199489 31119488 31599446
            31929378


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