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ACUS03 KWNS 300729
SWODY3
SPC AC 300728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe thunderstorms across the northern
and central Plains on Thursday appears too uncertain to include
severe probabilities at this time.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper ridge will remain over a majority of the
western/central CONUS on Thursday as an upper trough shifts eastward
off the East Coast and into the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface,
an area of high pressure will persist over the Great Lakes and parts
of the Northeast. A weak surface low beneath the upper ridge should
be present across the central High Plains.

At least scattered thunderstorms should develop along/ahead of a
cold front across parts of the Southeast Thursday afternoon. With
generally modest mid-level flow forecast across this region, the
potential for organized severe thunderstorms appears low.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Model guidance suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough may be
embedded within the upper ridge over the central Rockies at the
beginning of the period. This shortwave trough may be related to
convection from prior days over the Southwest. The degree of
destabilization that may occur across parts of the northern/central
Plains in advance of this shortwave trough is highly uncertain. Some
guidance indicates that convection will be ongoing Thursday morning
across this region, which would probably temper diurnal heating and
related development of instability downstream. Even though mid-level
flow would potentially be strong enough to organize convection
across parts of eastern WY into SD/NE, there is currently too much
uncertainty regarding sufficient instability to include even
marginal severe probabilities.

Mainly elevated convection may also develop Thursday evening in a
low-level warm air advection regime across some portion of the
central Plains to the Ozarks. The 00Z NAM/GFS are much farther east
than the ECMWF regarding the placement of these thunderstorms. Stark
differences in the forecast elevated instability also lend
substantial uncertainty whether any hail risk may ultimately develop
with these elevated storms.

Farther north, thunderstorms may initiate along a weak surface
boundary from northern ND into northwestern MN by Thursday
afternoon. Even though instability should become strong south of
this front owing to diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass,
shear is forecast to remain rather weak across this region. Have
therefore not included any probabilities for organized severe
thunderstorms at this time.

..Gleason.. 07/30/2019

$$


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