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ACUS01 KWNS 300542
SWODY1
SPC AC 300540

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening across
the northern High Plains. A few severe wind gusts are also possible
across parts of the Northeast this afternoon.

...Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will be in place across the northern High
Plains today. At the surface, a lee trough will strengthen from
eastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming. East of the surface
trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F should result in an
axis of moderate instability. In spite of limited large-scale
ascent, a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the
western edge of the stronger instability during the late afternoon
and move eastward into the northern High Plains. Forecast soundings
in the northern High Plains around 00Z/Wednesday show 40 to 50 kt of
deep-layer shear along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This
may be enough for an isolated severe threat. At this time, will
retain a marginal risk area across the northern High Plains due to
the presence of the upper-level ridge and uncertainties concerning
convective coverage. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail should be
the primary threats.

...Northeast...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes
region today as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Northeast.
At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture is
forecast from the Mid-Atlantic northeastward into New England. A
couple pockets of moderate instability will be possible along this
corridor during the afternoon. Convection should develop on the
western edge of the stronger instability around midday with
thunderstorms moving eastward across the Northeast during the
afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be relatively weak, steep
low-level lapse rates could be enough for marginally severe wind
gusts with storms that move into the strongest instability.

..Broyles/Bentley.. 07/30/2019

$$


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