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ACUS01 KWNS 300052
SWODY1
SPC AC 300051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible this evening across parts of the central High
Plains. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible in eastern
Idaho, southwest Montana and western Wyoming this evening.

...Central High Plains...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge over the
Rockies with northwest mid-level flow in the central Plains. At the
surface, a lee trough is located to the east of the front range with
backed southeasterly flow in northeastern Colorado and western
Nebraska. Surface dewpoints near 60 F are contributing to a small
pocket of moderate instability in northeast Colorado and western
Nebraska with MLCAPE values near 2000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms
are ongoing along this corridor where moderate deep-layer shear is
in place due to directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This
combined with steep lapse rates should be enough for a severe threat
with rotating cells that persist for a few more hours this evening.
Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats.

...Eastern Idaho/Southwest Montana/Western Wyoming...
Latest water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow over the
western U.S. with an upper-level ridge over the Rockies. At the
surface, a trough is analyzed from northern Utah into southwestern
Idaho. A pocket of maximized low-level moisture exists ahead of the
trough across southeastern Idaho where surface dewpoints are in the
55 to 60 F range. This is contributing to enough instability for
strong updrafts early this evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and
steep low-level lapse rates evident on forecast soundings, will make
conditions sufficient for isolated strong wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 07/30/2019

$$


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