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ACUS11 KWNS 292216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292215
AZZ000-300015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1612
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Areas affected...Southeast AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292215Z - 300015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A strong wind gust or two is possible across southeast AZ
this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is gradually increasing across
southeast AZ amidst modest low-level moisture and buoyancy. Recent
EMX VAD profile shows 20-25 kt easterly flow between 3 and 5 km and
the expectation is for some of these storms to move off the higher
terrain into the Lower Desert. Convective inhibition increases with
western extent and storm longevity once off the higher terrain will
be limited. Even so, isolated strong outflow winds are possible from
the more robust storms. Marginal and isolated nature of the severe
threat will preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 07/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31331090 31531169 31881207 32721193 33271113 33471038
            33530992 33350946 33040917 32350916 31450977 31331090



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