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ACUS11 KWNS 292155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292154
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-292330-
Mesoscale Discussion 1611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019
Areas affected...Eastern Idaho...far southwest Montana...and far
northwest Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292154Z - 292330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms are expected into the
evening. No watch is expected.
DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms have developed along the Continental
Divide in southwest Montana and in far southern Idaho. Expect
additional development with each of these clusters and additional
storms to develop in between. Instability will be the primary
limiting factor with only 250 to 500 J/kg MLCAPE across the region
and only slight additional warming/moistening expected. However,
this instability has proven sufficient for a few stronger updrafts
thus far, and effective shear around 40 to 45 knots (per SFX VWP)
will aid in updraft organization. Therefore, a few isolated severe
storms are possible with occasional supercell structures through the
evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and a dry sub-cloud layer will
support severe wind gusts as the primary threat. The
marginal/isolated severe threat will likely preclude the need for a
severe thunderstorm watch.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/29/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
LAT...LON 42311430 43401537 44231532 45241425 45581283 45561178
45381111 45041078 44631042 44111040 43671054 43141074
42751114 42311226 42021314 42311430
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