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ACUS11 KWNS 292032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292031
NEZ000-WYZ000-292230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292031Z - 292230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storm development is expected over the next few
hours, with mainly isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps some
severe hail possible with the stronger storms. The isolated nature
of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent attempts at convective initiation have been
noted, via visible satellite imagery, across the higher terrain in
southeast WY. As the boundary layer continues to warm and
destabilize, additional attempts of parcels becoming deeply
convective are expected, with at least a few storms initiating and
becoming sustained later this afternoon into the early evening
hours. Latest RAP forecast soundings show relatively mediocre
vertical thermodynamic profiles, characterized by very skinny MLCAPE
confined within the 600-300 mb layer, however, low-level moisture
has not mixed out as rapidly as anticipated across the WY/NE border,
with up to 60F noted as far west as TOR over the past hour or so.
Modified RAP forecast soundings with 55-60F dewpoints otherwise
shows formidably higher CAPE in the 700-300 mb layer (with up to
1500 J/kg MLCAPE noted).

Assuming low-level moisture north of CYS only slowly mixes out, the
near dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 850-500 mb, combined with
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, will promote damaging wind gusts with any
storm that can become sustained, especially given the 50 knots of
bulk effective shear in place. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates
may also encourage severe hail growth in updrafts with more
persistent mid-level rotation. Still, storm coverage is expected to
be isolated in nature and as such, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON   41430211 41110293 41080355 41200436 42520550 42690567
            43130539 43290517 43210470 42890386 42760341 42220257
            41430211



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