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ACUS01 KWNS 292001
SWODY1
SPC AC 292000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE ARKLATEX...AND SOUTHERN IDAHO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind is possible over the central High Plains, parts
of the southern Great Plains to the Mid-South, and the northern
Intermountain West mainly this afternoon into early evening. Hail is
most likely across the central High Plains.

...Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Ohio River...
A line of storms currently stretches from eastern Lower Michigan
across central Indiana and western Kentucky, with most wind gusts
measured in the 30 kt range. While instability will continue to be
relatively weak ahead of this line, a few of the stronger line
segments may produce wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range this
afternoon, especially from IN into western OH. For more information
see mesoscale discussion 1608.

...Central High Plains...
While severe storms capable of hail and wind are conditionally
possible from eastern WY into western NE, eastern CO, and northwest
KS, uncertainty exists regarding storm coverage. Given good
deep-layer shear, a few widely spaced, long-lived cells are possible
with hail, especially from eastern WY into western NE. Strong wind
gusts are possible area-wide, aided by deep mixed layers. As such,
will maintain the Marginal Risk mainly due to expected severe storm
coverage. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1609.

..Jewell.. 07/29/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019/

...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley...
A weak cold front is sagging southeastward across the Mid MS Valley
today, along with several pre-frontal outflow boundaries and
convective elements.  All of this activity will spread across the
MRGL risk area this afternoon and evening, with scattered
re-development behind the initial activity in areas were strong
heating can occur.  Vertical shear is weak, but sufficient northwest
steering flow and strong instability will pose a risk of a few
intense cores capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail.  Organized
severe activity is not anticipated at this time.

...Central High Plains...
Southeasterly low-level winds and strong heating will result in a
corridor of moderate instability this afternoon (MLCAPE values over
1500 J/kg) from eastern WY into eastern CO and adjacent parts of
NE/KS.  This region is beneath general upper ridging, with weak
large scale forcing expected.  Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings suggest relatively strong northwest flow aloft
promoting supercell structures.  This would support a risk of hail
and damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells.  Considered adding a
SLGT in parts of this area, but 12z CAMs are not consistent enough
in the placement of activity to warrant an upgrade given the weak
forcing.

...ID...
A shortwave trough over northern CA will track into the northern
Great Basin this afternoon, encouraging scattered thunderstorm
development over parts of OR/ID/MT/WY.  A deeply-mixed boundary
layer, sufficient CAPE, and strong southwest flow aloft suggest a
risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells over this
region.

$$


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