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ACUS11 KWNS 291952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291952
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado into extreme
northwestern Kansas and extreme southwestern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291952Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development and intensification is
expected through the remainder of the afternoon into the early
evening hours. The strongest storms may produce at least marginally
severe hail and damaging winds. Given the isolated storm coverage
expected, a WW issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently transpired across
portions of central CO, and the Front Range in northeast CO, given
ample boundary layer heating and an upslope component to the
low-level flow. Deep mixing of the boundary layer has resulted in
steep low-level lapse rates (8+ C/km in the lowest 3km), with steep
mid-level lapse rates also noted (7-8 C/km), fostering up to 1500
J/kg MLCAPE across the Front Range. Steep lapse rates throughout the
depth of the troposphere, along with ample deep-layer shear and some
low-level directional shear (contributing to modest clockwise shaped
hodographs) will promote at least transient supercell development
and associated severe hail potential with any organized updraft that
can become sustained. In addition, the sfc-700 mb (sub-cloud) layer
is expected to be quite dry (per latest RAP forecast soundings),
particularly for areas where temperatures may reach or exceed 90F.
As such, ample evaporative cooling may promote damaging wind gusts
with the more sustained storms as well.

Nonetheless, ridging aloft is prevalent, and the overall weak
synoptic forcing is expected to result in isolated storm coverage,
as is persistently reflected in HRRR guidance, which considerably
varies in the placement of aforementioned discrete/semi-discrete
convection from run to run. As such, low confidence is in place for
a more precise location of a concentrated severe threat, which will
likely preclude a WW issuance at this time.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39570519 39770445 40630396 40910254 40540188 40000167
            39360177 38930192 38530234 38090318 38110372 38740497
            38960541 39570519



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