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ACUS11 KWNS 291812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291811
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-292015-
Mesoscale Discussion 1608
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019
Areas affected...lower Michigan vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291811Z - 292015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Local risk for gusty/damaging winds is apparent with
isolated/sustained updrafts, but WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a disorganized band of showers
and thunderstorms moving across lower Michigan and adjacent portions
of Indiana at this time, ahead of the cold front now crossing Lake
Michigan. Ahead of the convective band, early afternoon heating
through scattered cloud cover has permitted modest destabilization,
with 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now indicated.
With ample CAPE likely to fuel a continuation of convection as it
spreads eastward across Lower Michigan and vicinity, occasionally
stronger, embedded cells are expected, aided by moderate (25 to 35
kt) unidirectional/southwesterly flow aloft. With the flow
contributing to quick storm motion, along with aiding updraft
longevity, local instances of gusty winds and minor damage will
persist through the afternoon hours.
..Goss/Hart.. 07/29/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43878233 42638235 41418341 41158462 41538554 42878524
43868559 44468524 45498352 45348262 43878233
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