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AWUS01 KWNH 291730
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-292200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0686
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Areas affected...central/northern Arkansas...eastern
Oklahoma...extreme southern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291728Z - 292200Z

Summary...Increasing convection is expected over the next few
hours in a moist and unstable air mass ahead of a slow-moving cold
front. Isolated areas of training convection could lead to
localized 2-3 inch rainfall amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...A highly moist (PWs of 2.0-2.2 in) and moderately
unstable (MLCAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg) air mass is in place ahead of
a slow-moving cold front. Latest visible satellite imagery along
with radar data show new convection beginning to develop along the
western Arkansas/Missouri border, likely aided by low-level
convergence along a boundary left over from convection earlier
this morning. The region lies within a broad area of low-level
confluent flow as evident by RAP 850 hPa wind field. Relatively
weak CINH which was in place earlier this morning is beginning to
erode per latest SPC mesoanalysis, which should allow convection
to increasingly tap into the highly moist air mass in place at the
low-levels, as indicated by surface dew points in the mid-70s F
across central Arkansas. Weak lapse rates should contribute to a
relatively deep warm cloud layer and fairly efficient rainfall
processes, which should be more fully utilized once convection can
become surface-based.

The HRRR seemed to have a reasonably good handle on ongoing
convection from southeastern Oklahoma to northern Arkansas and
southern Missouri. While the overall environment is not supportive
of persistent or long-lived backward propagation, the latest HRRR
does show some potential for at least brief periods of localized
backward propagation and/or training. In any areas where this
occurs, hourly rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches would be possible.
These amounts could lead to instances of flash flooding.
Relatively dry ground and high flash flood guidance values should
keep the threat of flash flooding relatively isolated.

Ryan

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36758995 36588962 36288965 35888987 35359027
            34719126 33999295 33739402 33919475 34789513
            35649539 36329520 36669481 36679434 36499385
            36409309 36379250 36369198 36419117 36629052



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