This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1564420520-118394-1786
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS02 KWNS 291715
SWODY2
SPC AC 291714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe wind gusts are possible across parts of Pennsylvania
and New York Tuesday afternoon, and over the northern High Plains
through evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain centered over the Rockies with modest
northwest flow across the Northern Plains. To the east, a weak upper
trough will stretch from James Bay southward across the Lower Great
Lakes and along the length of the Appalachians, providing relatively
cool temperatures aloft. The bulk of the stronger winds aloft will
move into Quebec, with the tail end skirting parts of PA and NY.

At the surface, a weak front in association with the northeastern
trough will move into western NY and PA during the afternoon, where
mid 60s F dewpoints will support marginal instability. Numerous
storms will occur along this front, with sporadic strong wind gusts
likely.

To the west, a lee trough will stretch from eastern MT into eastern
CO, with 55-60 F dewpoints spreading toward the eastern borders of
MT and WY. Moist southeasterly winds will likely yield isolated
strong storms capable of hail during the afternoon and late evening.


...Northeast...
Early day showers along the front should gradually become
thunderstorms as heating commences, with additional activity ahead
of the front after 18Z. Large-scale lift will increase due to the
upper trough with the best differential divergence from PA into NY.
This will maximize storm coverage, and therefore the probability of
a few severe wind gusts. Mean winds of 25-30 kt in the 850-700 mb
layer will keep storms and outflow moving, suggesting a forward
propagation component further supporting gusty winds.

...Northern High Plains...
Southeasterly surface winds will bring moisture westward into a
steep lapse rate environment with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE common by
late afternoon. Only weak surface convergence will exist, but strong
heating and terrain effects should result in isolated storms.
Effective deep-layer shear around 50 kt and resultant straight-line
hodographs will favor marginally severe hail from eastern MT into
northeast WY and western SD.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Jewell.. 07/29/2019

$$


------------=_1564420520-118394-1786
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1564420520-118394-1786--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)