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ACUS01 KWNS 291628
SWODY1
SPC AC 291626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO MID-SOUTH...NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail storms are possible over the central
High Plains, parts of the southern Great Plains to the Mid-South,
and the northern Intermountain West mainly this afternoon into early
evening.

...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley...
A weak cold front is sagging southeastward across the Mid MS Valley
today, along with several pre-frontal outflow boundaries and
convective elements.  All of this activity will spread across the
MRGL risk area this afternoon and evening, with scattered
re-development behind the initial activity in areas were strong
heating can occur.  Vertical shear is weak, but sufficient northwest
steering flow and strong instability will pose a risk of a few
intense cores capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail.  Organized
severe activity is not anticipated at this time.

...Central High Plains...
Southeasterly low-level winds and strong heating will result in a
corridor of moderate instability this afternoon (MLCAPE values over
1500 J/kg) from eastern WY into eastern CO and adjacent parts of
NE/KS.  This region is beneath general upper ridging, with weak
large scale forcing expected.  Nevertheless, isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings suggest relatively strong northwest flow aloft
promoting supercell structures.  This would support a risk of hail
and damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells.  Considered adding a
SLGT in parts of this area, but 12z CAMs are not consistent enough
in the placement of activity to warrant an upgrade given the weak
forcing.

...ID...
A shortwave trough over northern CA will track into the northern
Great Basin this afternoon, encouraging scattered thunderstorm
development over parts of OR/ID/MT/WY.  A deeply-mixed boundary
layer, sufficient CAPE, and strong southwest flow aloft suggest a
risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells over this
region.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/29/2019

$$


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