This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1564404767-118394-1731
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS01 KWNS 291252
SWODY1
SPC AC 291251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO MID-SOUTH...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail storms are possible over the central
High Plains, parts of the southern Great Plains to the Mid-South,
and the northern Intermountain West mainly this afternoon into early
evening.

...Northern Intermountain West to the Central High Plains...
A belt of enhanced flow within the low-amplitude ridge extending
north of the stout mid-level anticyclone near the AZ/NM will foster
a risk for a few organized severe thunderstorms from southern ID to
the central High Plains.

Deep-layer shear will be greatest across the central High Plains
portion owing to northwesterly mid-level flow atop light low-level
southerlies. Here, a narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s surface dew
points will support about a 100-mile wide plume of weak to moderate
buoyancy. This setup could yield a couple high-based supercells with
a risk for large hail and severe wind. Uncertainty in potential for
greater storm coverage renders deferral on a Slight Risk upgrade.

Over the southern ID area, deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles will
largely support a risk for isolated severe wind gusts. Isolated to
scattered dry thunderstorms are also anticipated, reference FWDDY1.

...Southern Great Plains to Mid-South...
A swath of pre-frontal convection is ongoing from eastern OK to
central IL. CAMs largely suggest this activity will persist with
potential for intensification along downstream outflows into the
Mid-South region. Deep-layer shear will wane with southeast extent
suggesting that multicell clusters should remain weakly organized.
Locally damaging winds should be the primary threat.

In the wake of the ongoing activity, there are indications of
potential redevelopment along the southward-sagging cold front.
Guidance does differ in the degree of convergence along the boundary
in the absence of large-scale ascent, which renders uncertainty in
storm coverage. Nevertheless, peak buoyancy is expected to be
centered across eastern OK at the intersection of rich
boundary-layer moisture east with a hot boundary-layer west. While
deep-layer flow will be weak, substantial veering of the wind
profile with height might foster a couple multicell clusters with
risks for isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail.

..Grams/Smith.. 07/29/2019

$$


------------=_1564404767-118394-1731
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1564404767-118394-1731--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)