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ACUS03 KWNS 290727
SWODY3
SPC AC 290726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The probability for organized severe storms on Wednesday is low. A
few strong storms are possible across parts of the central into
northern High Plains, but confidence is too low to include severe
probabilities at this time.

...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough will continue to slide east/northeast
across New England. At the surface, a cold front will drop
south/southeast across New England and become stalled in the
vicinity of southern PA/MD/northern VA eastward through the
mid-Atlantic. A moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front will
lead to bands of thunderstorms from the central Appalachians
northward through the I-95 corridor and into ME. High PW values and
steep low level lapse rates could result in some wet downburst and
gusty wind potential throughout the region, but organized severe
threat should be mitigated by weak shear/forcing.

Further west, the upper ridge remains in place from the southern
Rockies to the northern High Plains. Subtle impulses will migrate
through the ridge from WY/MT eastward into the northern and central
Plains vicinity. South/southeasterly low level flow will continue to
transport moisture northward across the Plains, where much of the
region will experience mid to upper 60s F dewpoints, potentially as
far west as northeast CO into eastern WY/MT. Convection will largely
be limited across the Plains by capping beneath the ridge. However,
subtle impulses and increasing moisture in upslope flow regime could
be enough to result in isolated to widely scattered storms across
the central and northern High Plains. A conditional severe threat
will accompany any storms that develop given enhanced shear via
shortwave impulses and steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate
instability. However, confidence in where storms may be able to
overcome the cap is too low and will depend on timing of
aforementioned impulses and mesoscale processes related to prior
day's convection. As such, this will preclude addition of severe
probs at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/29/2019

$$


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