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ACUS02 KWNS 290601
SWODY2
SPC AC 290600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong, locally severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening across parts of the northeastern U.S as well as parts of the
northern High Plains.

...Portions of the Northeast...

The upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will shift slowly eastward on
Tuesday. Deep layer southwesterly flow will remain generally weak
across the region, though most guidance does depict a zone of around
25-30 kt effective shear from roughly western PA/NY toward the
Champlain Valley vicinity. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s
and strong surface heating ahead of an approaching cold front will
allow for weak to moderate destabilization by early afternoon.
Modest midlevel lapse rates and weak shear will act to temper the
severe threat. However, PW values around 1.50-1.75 inches and steep
low level lapse rates will support downdraft dominant storms in weak
low level shear environment, and some clusters and/or line segments
could become organized along the front or through
outflow/storm-scale interactions. As a result, sporadic strong,
locally damaging wind gusts are possible during the afternoon and
early evening.

...Northern and Central High Plains Vicinity...

A more conditional threat will exist across parts of eastern MT/WY
into western SD and northwest NE late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. A shortwave impulse will migrate through the intense western
upper ridge, providing a source of subtle forcing aloft in a moist,
upslope flow regime. However, midlevel temperatures will be quite
warm as this area remain on the periphery of a strong EML. A large
area of upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will overspread the
northern Plains and extend westward across eastern WY/MT, where
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside. Some guidance suggests capping
will preclude storm initiation across eastern WY into SD/NE while
other guidance develops at least a couple of storms. If storms can
form in this environment, long, straight hodographs and 40+ kt
effective shear will support rotating storms capable of large hail,
and if surface-based, strong outflow winds.

Further north, greater instability and stronger low level
convergence along a surface trough/weak surface front and cooler
midlevel temperatures will likely lead to a better chance of at
least widely scattered convection. As a south/southeasterly low
level jet increases during the evening, storms are expected to
develop across eastern MT and could produce large hail and perhaps
some gusty winds.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Leitman.. 07/29/2019

$$


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