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ACUS01 KWNS 290541
SWODY1
SPC AC 290539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms capable of hail and strong gusty
winds are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the
central High Plains and from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi
Valley.

...Central High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward across the central and
northern Rockies today. At the surface, a lee trough will strengthen
in the central High Plains. Backed surface winds to the east of the
surface trough will result in a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture from western Kansas into southwestern Nebraska.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the early afternoon in the
higher terrain of north-central Colorado and southeast Wyoming,
spreading eastward into the High Plains during the mid to late
afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates combined with directional
wind shear in the low to mid-levels will create conditions
sufficient for a marginal severe threat. As cells move eastward into
increasing instability during the late afternoon, strong wind gusts
and hail will be possible.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Western Great
Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southeastward across north-central Illinois and central
Missouri during the afternoon. Surface dewpoints near 70 F will
contribute to moderate instability ahead of the front. Cells that
initiate along the front will move east-southeastward across the
corridor of instability during the late afternoon. Although
deep-layer shear should remain weak, steep low-level lapse rates may
be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger
multicells.

..Broyles/Bentley.. 07/29/2019

$$


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