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AWUS01 KWNH 290315
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-290910-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0685
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1114 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Areas affected...IA into northern MO and far western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290313Z - 290910Z

Summary...Training of heavy rain with rates peaking near 2 in/hr
may generate flash flooding from portions of  IA into northern MO
over the next few hours, possibly reaching far western IL by 09Z.
Maximum rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are expected.

Discussion...Two axes of convection were ongoing as of 0245Z, one
stretching from southwestern WI into northwestern MO, and a second
(smaller) segment forward propagating into northeastern
NE/northwestern IA. The leading segment has been associated with
observed training and repeating of rainfall with reports in
southwestern IA between 1.5 and 2 inches in 1 hour ending 02Z.
These heavy rates are attributed to a fairly moist environment
(1.7 to 2 inch PWATs) and CAPE of at least 1000 J/kg observed via
nearby 00Z soundings.

The leading axis of convection appears to be tied to a 700 mb
trough axis which was identified via VAD wind plots and RAP
analyses, oriented from northeast to southwest through
west-central IA into central KS at 03Z. Winds just ahead of the
trough were westerly at 25-30 kt, of similar orientation to but
greater magnitude of observed average cell movement. Given these
winds, any cells elevated behind the leading axis of convection
will be capable of training from west to east. In addition, flow
aloft is rather diffluent which will help with vertical velocities
across the region. The OAX sounding from 00Z and observed
satellite/radar trends suggest that sufficient instability is
present in the wake of the leading line of convection moving
through eastern and southwestern IA to support additional
convection over the next few hours until the 700 mb trough axis
passes by. The high moisture environment has already proved to be
capable of rainfall rates near 2 in/hr, and 1-2 hours of training
could lead to 2-4 inches of rain through 09Z. Therefore, flash
flooding will be possible.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42879244 42679160 42449066 41899009 40609073
            39609186 39459393 39849505 40489568 41249511
            41959439 42869342


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