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ACUS01 KWNS 290043
SWODY1
SPC AC 290041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WESTERN
IOWA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat with wind damage and hail will continue across parts
of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley this evening.

...Southeast South Dakota/Northeast Nebraska/Northwest Iowa...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into the
Upper Mississippi Valley early this evening with another smaller
shortwave trough in the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold
front is located across eastern parts of the Dakotas southward into
eastern Nebraska. Surface dewpoints along and to the east of the
front are near 70 F. A pocket of moderate instability is analyzed
near the front with MLCAPE values estimated by the RAP to be from
2000 to 2500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the northern
instability max in eastern South Dakota. These storms should
continue form a line and move south-southeastward into northeastern
Nebraska over the next few hours. A wind damage threat and hail will
be possible with the stronger segments of the line. The slight risk
area has been expanded eastward into northwest Iowa to encompass WW
544.

...Wisconsin...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
the Upper Mississippi Valley.  At the surface, a warm front extends
eastward from a 1006 mb low near Minneapolis. Thunderstorms are
ongoing just to the southeast of the surface low across western
Wisconsin where the RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate
instability with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. The short-line segment
should continue to move eastward into central Wisconsin this evening
where moderate deep-layer shear may be enough for an isolated severe
threat. Wind damage would be the most likely threat associated with
the stronger parts of the line.

..Broyles.. 07/29/2019

$$


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