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ACUS11 KWNS 281903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281903
WIZ000-MNZ000-282100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Minnesota into west central
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 281903Z - 282100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...One or two supercell storms may develop near or south
through southeast of the Minneapolis metropolitan areas, into parts
of west central Wisconsin by 3-5 PM CDT, and may pose a risk for
tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and locally strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Although not particularly well-defined, a mid-level
cyclonic vorticity center continues to gradually develop eastward,
within larger-scale troughing advancing from the eastern Dakotas
toward the Upper Midwest.  This feature appears associated with a
40-50 kt southwesterly to westerly speed maximum within the 700-500
mb layer, which is forecast to continue overspreading east central
and southeastern Minnesota into west central Wisconsin through early
this evening.  Beneath this regime, a zone of stronger differential
surface heating is becoming better defined, roughly near/south of
the Interstate 94 corridor, from near Minneapolis into the Camp
Douglas WI vicinity.  This is associated with continuing insolation
to the south/southwest of a weak surface front, which is being
reinforced to some extent by convective cloud cover and
precipitation.

Guidance remains suggestive that a focused area of large-scale
forcing for ascent (associated with the jet streak/vorticity
maximum) may contribute to intensifying convective development, as
boundary-layer destabilization begins to peak along and just south
of the surface front.  Given inflow of seasonably moist air
supportive of CAPE up to around 2000 J/kg, in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear, this may include at least a period of supercell
development, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and locally
strong surface gusts.  Enlarging low-level hodographs will probably
also contribute to a risk for tornadoes, particularly as storms
cross or propagate along the frontal zone.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45149120 44418983 43749083 43989278 45149325 45149120



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