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ACUS11 KWNS 281745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281745
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-281945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Areas affected...Portions of Upstate New York...central and northern
Vermont into New Hampshire...western into central Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281745Z - 281945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storm development is underway across portions of
New England, with additional storm development likely over the next
several hours. A few of the strongest storms may produce a few
damaging wind gusts. The isolated nature of the damaging wind threat
precludes a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...The passage of an upper-level shortwave trough, along
with increased diurnal heating of the boundary layer, has resulted
in the initiation of scattered storm development, from portions of
Upstate New York, into northern/western New England over the past
couple of hours. Continued insolation, in tandem with the passing
upper-level trough, will provide enough lift to support additional
storm development and gradual intensification through the afternoon
hours across the region.

Currently, modest buoyancy is in place, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
noted by the latest Mesoanalysis, with RAP forecast soundings and
Mesoanalysis depicting MLCAPE reaching up to 1500 J/kg by afternoon
peak heating. The buoyancy in place is driven primarily by deep
low-level moisture, as lapse rates are expected to remain somewhat
poor (just below 7 C/km in the sfc-3km layer, and around 6 C/km
through the rest of the troposphere). In addition, nearly
unidirectional, weak flow below 300 mb suggests that speed and
directional shear will also be poor throughout New England.
Nonetheless, the aforementioned CAPE profiles, and some speed shear
within the boundary layer, suggests that a few individual cells or
multicell clusters may become organized long enough to produce a few
damaging wind gusts. However, the damaging wind gust threat is
expected to remain sparse in nature, and a WW issuance is not
expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43867616 44417581 45007488 45007151 45357064 45987017
            47116956 47186892 47216811 46766789 45996836 44736963
            43747074 42927216 42697433 43127572 43867616



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