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ACUS01 KWNS 281627
SWODY1
SPC AC 281626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible between
about 3 to 9 PM CDT across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

...MN/WI...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast, but several
details result in a complicated and low-confidence outlook.  A
compact shortwave trough is moving across eastern SD toward MN/WI.
A broad shield of clouds and precipitation is associated with this
feature, limiting daytime heating/destabilization. It remains
possible that a few cells in vicinity of the vort center may
organize/intensify this afternoon as shown by 12z CAM guidance.  If
this occurs, forecast soundings suggest sufficient deep layer and
low-level vertical shear for a risk of supercell structures and a
few tornadoes and gusty/damaging wind events.  Warm temperatures
aloft and weak lapse rates should limit the risk of hail. Those
storms that can organize will track across eastern MN into western
WI this evening before weakening after dark.

...SD/NE...
In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave trough, a surface cold
front is moving across the Dakotas.  Relatively strong heating will
likely occur ahead of the front this afternoon over parts of
east-central SD, leading to scattered thunderstorm development.
This cluster of storms will track southeastward and perhaps into
eastern NE this evening. CAM guidance is persistent in the
development of a bowing complex of storms, with MLCAPE values of
2000 J/kg and sufficient northwesterly flow aloft to support
organized severe potential.  Therefore have added a small SLGT risk
for this scenario.

...Lower Great Lakes into New England...
Broad cyclonic upper flow is present today over much of the
northeast states.  A combination of daytime heating and dewpoints in
the 60s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg.  Several
clusters of thunderstorms are expected to form across this region,
with the strongest cells posing a risk of gusty/damaging winds and
perhaps hail.  This threat should be mostly diurnal, weakening an
hour or two after sunset.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/28/2019

$$


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