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ACUS01 KWNS 281959
SWODY1
SPC AC 281957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible between
about 3 to 9 PM CDT across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

...Discussion...
Little change appears necessary with respect to the ongoing outlook
lines, and forecast reasoning, as convection continues to evolve as
expected.  The primary change to the outlook has been to include a
small 2% tornado risk area across the eastern North Dakota vicinity,
where a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon.
Greater risk remains to the southeast, over the eastern
Minnesota/western Wisconsin vicinity.  Meanwhile, showers and
isolated/embedded thunderstorms continue from Lower Michigan east
across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast, where a stronger storm or
two may produce gusty winds before storms dissipate this evening.

..Goss.. 07/28/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019/

...MN/WI...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast, but several
details result in a complicated and low-confidence outlook.  A
compact shortwave trough is moving across eastern SD toward MN/WI.
A broad shield of clouds and precipitation is associated with this
feature, limiting daytime heating/destabilization. It remains
possible that a few cells in vicinity of the vort center may
organize/intensify this afternoon as shown by 12z CAM guidance.  If
this occurs, forecast soundings suggest sufficient deep layer and
low-level vertical shear for a risk of supercell structures and a
few tornadoes and gusty/damaging wind events.  Warm temperatures
aloft and weak lapse rates should limit the risk of hail. Those
storms that can organize will track across eastern MN into western
WI this evening before weakening after dark.

...SD/NE...
In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave trough, a surface cold
front is moving across the Dakotas.  Relatively strong heating will
likely occur ahead of the front this afternoon over parts of
east-central SD, leading to scattered thunderstorm development.
This cluster of storms will track southeastward and perhaps into
eastern NE this evening. CAM guidance is persistent in the
development of a bowing complex of storms, with MLCAPE values of
2000 J/kg and sufficient northwesterly flow aloft to support
organized severe potential.  Therefore have added a small SLGT risk
for this scenario.

...Lower Great Lakes into New England...
Broad cyclonic upper flow is present today over much of the
northeast states.  A combination of daytime heating and dewpoints in
the 60s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg.  Several
clusters of thunderstorms are expected to form across this region,
with the strongest cells posing a risk of gusty/damaging winds and
perhaps hail.  This threat should be mostly diurnal, weakening an
hour or two after sunset.

$$


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