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ACUS11 KWNS 282214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282213
MIZ000-282315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Areas affected...southeast lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 282213Z - 282315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated downburst winds will remain possible over
southeast lower Michigan through about 00Z, followed by a
diminishing trend. A WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue initiating along a weak convergence
boundary across southeast MI with failed attempts at deeper
convective development farther west. The atmosphere in this region
is moderately unstable with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite weak mid-level
lapse rates, the boundary layer has destabilized sufficiently to
support a few wet downbursts as multicell storms develop within the
weakly sheared environment next couple hours.

..Dial/Guyer.. 07/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43128361 43208278 43098246 42648252 42458336 42418442
            42818452 43128361



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