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ACUS11 KWNS 282057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282056
MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-282300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019
Areas affected...Far east New York...central and southern Vermont
and New Hampshire...western and central Massachusetts...northern
Connecticut
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 282056Z - 282300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the
stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to be quite sparse in
nature, and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms continue to develop/move eastward
across portions of New England this afternoon. Unlike areas farther
west-northwest, low-level moisture is slightly more scant in nature
across the discussion area, contributing to marginal instability and
a tall, very skinny (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE profile. Some directional
shear was noted in the 850-700 mb layer via the latest RAP forecast
soundings. Otherwise, kinematic fields are mediocre in nature. As
such, a few of the stronger cells may briefly organize enough to
promote marginally severe wind gusts with the most intense
downdrafts. Even so, the severe threat is expected to be localized
enough to preclude the issuance of a WW.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 41857357 42017393 42577394 43167346 43517318 43737256
43827146 43647109 43317106 43087097 42607131 41877219
41777333 41857357
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