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ACUS11 KWNS 281945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281945
MNZ000-NDZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota and portions of northwestern
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281945Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Trends will continue to be monitored, but there appears
little potential for substantive further intensification of ongoing
storms, and activity may tend to weaken while spreading across the
region through 4-6 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm activity has recently developed
in response to moderate boundary layer destabilization (CAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg) within a relatively narrow pre-cold frontal corridor
across south central through northeastern North Dakota.  The front
is associated with an eastward progressing mid-level trough, the
most significant portion of which (including stronger forcing for
ascent) appears likely to remain well north of the central
Canadian/U.S. border area.  Particularly south of the international
border, stronger (30-50 kt) westerly mid-level flow lags to the west
of the front.  Within the zone of convective development, deep layer
shear appears marginal for organized convective development, at
best.  Furthermore, stronger southerly 850 mb wind fields (20-30+
kt) are in the process of developing northeast of the international
border, through southeastern Manitoba and far northwestern Ontario.

With ongoing convection tending to develop eastward into an
environment only slowly beginning to destabilize in the wake of
preceding convective cloud cover and precipitation, potential for
substantive further intensification appears rather low.  There
appears a greater probability that convection will tend to weaken,
with low to negligible risk for continuing severe weather potential.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49159708 49749564 48839481 47329656 46119826 46610011
            49159708



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