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FOUS30 KWBC 281603
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jul 28 2019 - 12Z Mon Jul 29 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

16Z Update...

...Southeast Texas and Southern Louisiana...
In addition to minor adjustments to the outlook areas over the
Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast, a Marginal Risk was added to
portions of Southeast Texas and southern Louisiana.  With the 12Z
run, HREF 40km neighborhood probabilities for amounts exceeding 2
inches during the afternoon-evening hours have increased across
this area.  Southwesterly low level flow is supporting PWs 1.8 to
2 inches, with scattered convection beginning to develop with the
increase in daytime heating.  Weak flow through the low to mid
levels is expected to support slow-moving cells.  Despite
relatively high flash flood guidance values (3-4 inches for 1-hr),
these storms may have to the potential to cause localized runoff
concerns, especially over poor drainage areas.

Previous Discussion...

...Northern Plains to Upper Great Lakes...
Deepening moisture and increasing instability ahead of a short
wave trough moving from SD into MN before merging into a long wave
trough crossing the Canadian Prairies feeds convection capable of
producing excessive rainfall Sunday into Sunday night. There
remained good model agreement with the large scale pattern, though
continued time and position differences with the surface low made
for differences with the QPF. Given the instability gradient
(higher CAPEs south), WPC QPF tended to align on the southern
periphery of the multi-model spread -- close to a blend of the
HREF mean, NBM, and WPC bias-corrected ensemble QPF.

Ongoing convection early this morning across SD into MN will be
reinvigorated today as the low deepens upon tracking toward Lake
Superior. The developing convection is fed 1.75 to 2 inch
precipitable water air (which is 2.5 standard deviations above the
mean) on a 30 to 40 knot low level southwest flow. Lift ahead of
the long wave trough should allow the convection to expand in
coverage, and become better organized as it moves over southern
and central MN into northern and central WI. Expect a sharpening
instability gradient N-S though the surface warm front, with a
model consensus of 2000-2500+ MUCAPEs across the southern
periphery of the Slight Risk area.

This airmass could support hourly rainfall totals near 1.5 inches
and there is a multi model signal for 2 to 2.5 inches of rainfall
over central MN to the Lake Superior shore. Three hour flash flood
guidance values are generally 1.5 to 2.5 inches over portions of
MN into WI (including the Minneapolis metro area), and these
numbers could be exceeded where convection trains ahead of the
front. Based on this, a Slight Risk was maintained over much of
southern and central MN into northern WI and the western UP along
with some more of eastern SD to cover the ongoing storms in the
morning.


...Central Plains...
A cold front trailing the shortwave trough crossing the northern
plains will push into IA/MO Sunday night. Southwesterly low level
flow ahead of the trough will bring PWs up to 1.75 to 2 inches
Sunday night from eastern KS to eastern IA. Scattered convection
developing late Sunday afternoon over eastern NE/western IA could
organize and track east while propagating south given westerly
mean flow and northerly propagation vectors. Despite 3hr FFG of
2.5 to 3 inches, localized repeating cells could raise flash flood
concerns and a Marginal Risk was raised that extends to across IA
to southwest MO.


...Northeast...
Moisture and instability south of a frontal boundary extending
from southern Ontario into northern ME could feed convection
capable of producing heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon and evening.
Weak short wave energy in the mid level flow south of the front is
expected to interact with 1.25/1.50 inch precipitable water air
and 1000/2000 J/KG of MLCAPE stretching from western NY/western PA
across NY state into northern and central New England during peak
heating.

The weakly difluent flow ahead of the short wave could allow small
clusters of storms to move across this area, generally following
the best instability axis, but much of the activity is expected to
be fairly short lived in nature. For the most part, the mid-level
flow should be sufficient to keep the convection progressive,
limiting an organized flash flood threat. In addition, much of the
area has been fairly dry over the past seven days, with three hour
flash flood guidance values generally over 2.50 inches. While
there could be some locally heavy rainfall, the overall threat for
more than isolated short-term runoff issues is low, thus the
Marginal Risk over this area.

Pereira/Hurley/Jackson


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 29 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 30 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...Southern Rockies into the Southwest...
As the mid level ridge reasserts itself over the Southwest states,
the monsoonal flow becomes reestablished over the Southwest and
Southern Rockies during Day 2. While the best thrust of moisture
is expected across southern AZ (where precipitable water values
rebound to near 1.75 inches before 30/12z), the best instability
is expected across the Southern Rockies into the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. An axis of 500/1000 J/KG of MLCAPE is expected to
develop from the Front Range of the Rockies in CO into northern
and southwest NM, peaking near 30/00z.

The developing storms will tap 1.00 inch precipitable water air on
a low level southeast flow to produce local 1.00 inch rainfall
amounts over the higher terrain, where the storms will be almost
stationary against the upslope flow. Once maximum heating occurs,
the storms will begin to move slowly west northwest with the weak
mid level flow, retaining the potential to produce hourly rainfall
rates between 0.50/1.00 inches away from the terrain. Three hour
flash flood guidance values are as low as 1.50 inches in these
areas, so a low end flash flood threat is expected. Based on the
above, a Marginal risk was placed over the higher terrain and
adjacent locations.

Further west across southeast AZ, the moisture plume from northern
Mexico possesses more moisture than
CO/NM, but instability could end up being the limiting factor for
a more organized flash flood threat. Scattered storms could
produce local 1.00 inch rainfall amounts over the higher terrain
before moving out into lower terrain, but the general lack of
forcing would suggest that the storms should be short lived. Slow
cell motions under the ridge position could allow for cell mergers
and short training. Based on the above, the Marginal Risk was
extended across southeast AZ for Day 2.


...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
Moisture and instability extending ahead of a slowing cold front
are expected to feed convection that could produce locally heavy
rainfall from the Lower MS Valley into the OH Valley during Day 2.
The best moisture feed ahead of the front is expected across MO
into AR/OK, mainly between 29/18z and 30/06z. Model soundings
showed an axis of 1500/2500 J/KG of MLCAPE in line with the
deepest moisture, and developing storms are expected to drop
southeast with the mid level flow.

Slow storm motions along the front as it becomes quasi stationary
in the 1.75/2.00 inch precipitable water air pooled near the front
could allow hourly rainfall rates to approach 2.00 inches, mainly
over AR around 30/00z. After that, there is a model signal that a
cold pool could form with storms over AR, resulting in the storms
dropping south into northern LA as they weaken.

Three hour flash flood guidance values are generally above 2.50
inches from MO into northeast OK, and above 3.50 inches over much
of the Lower MS Valley. Slow storm motions (especially early,
before any outflow driven storms form) could produce rainfall
amounts near the lower end of the spectrum, especially over
portions of AR and southern MO. Based on the above, a Marginal
Risk was placed over much of the Lower and a portion of the Mid MS
Valley for Day 2.

Further northeast along the front, the axis of moisture and
instability extends into the OH Valley, where storms along the
front across slow as the mid level flow becomes more parallel to
it. The 00z NAM CONUS Nest indicated the potential for hourly
rainfall rates to approach 1.50 inches over IN/OH and northern KY.
Three hour flash flood guidance values here are generally above
2.50 inches, but short term training in the higher moisture air
environment could allow storm totals to reach close to these
values. Based on this, the Marginal Risk was extended into the
Ohio Valley for Day 2.

Hayes

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 30 2019 - 12Z Wed Jul 31 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...Southern Rockies into the Southwest...
As the mid level ridge spreads eastward into CO/NM during Day 3,
the return southeast flow focuses the deeper monsoonal moisture on
portions of southern AZ into far southeast CA. Precipitable water
values of 1.75/2.00 inches (which is between two and three
standard deviations above the mean) are transported into these
areas, with the best thrust of moisture expected after 31/00z.
Model soundings from the 00z GFS showed an axis of 1000 J/KG of
MUCAPE extending across much of southwest AZ into far southeast
CA, peaking around 31/00z.

Convection is expected to develop across the terrain far southwest
NM and northern Mexico between 30/18z and 31/00z, tracking
northwest in the mid level flow. There is some hint that weak
short wave energy (or an old MCV?) moves from northern Mexico into
southwest AZ during this time, but not all model depict this
feature. Without more in the way of forcing, the convection could
remain scattered as it expands over much of AZ and southeast CA,
peaking between 31/00z and 31/06z. There is a model signal for
local
1.00+ inch rainfall amounts, with the best consensus over south
central AZ.

Given the depth of the moisture in place, hourly rainfall rates of
an inch (or higher) are indeed possible over south central into
southwest AZ (especially where cell mergers occur in the weak
steering flow), but from this distance, it is difficult to place
where this might occur. The synoptic setup looking increasing
favorable for flash flooding, and a Slight Risk was considered for
a portion of south central and southwest AZ. However, with the
details still in doubt, and after collaborating with WFO TWC, a
Marginal Risk was placed over much of the AZ into far eastern CA
for Day 3. As details come into better focus across this area, a
Slight Risk could be needed here in later forecasts.

The flow regime is not quite as favorable for portions of
southwest into northern NM and southwest CO, where the upslope
flow carries 0.75/1.25 inch precipitable water air (highest over
the plains) across the area during Day 3. There is some indication
that weak short wave energy could top the mid level ridge in place
and provide some local lift for convective clusters. The best
model signal is over the San Juan Mountains in southwest Co and
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in NM.

However, instability could end up being the limiting factor for a
more organized flash flood threat, suggesting that storms could
remain too scattered for more than a localized flash flooding.
Some of these areas have received 300+ percent of normal rainfall
over the past 7/14 days. The wet antecedent conditions leave
portions of eastern CO and eastern NM more susceptible to even
scattered storms with heavy rainfall, so these areas were included
in the Marginal Risk was well.


...Northern and Central Plains...
Moisture and instability on the nose of an increasing low level
flow could feed a developing cluster of storms (or an MCS) over
portions of NE into northeast KS during the second half of Day 3.
Deepening moisture and instability is drawn northward across the
Central and Northern Plains on the eastern edge of the mid level
ridge cresting over the southern Rockies after 31/00z. There is an
increasing model signal for convection to develop on an
instability axis north of a frontal boundary extending from
western ND/western SD across central NE into northeast KS just
before 31/00z, when remaining capping remains finally breaks.

A 20/30 knot low level south southeast flow transports 1.75 inch
precipitable water air (which is approaching two standard
deviations above the mean) along the instability axis. The
deepening moisture  feeds the developing convective clusters,
which could grow upscale into the MCS (which is suggested by the
00z GFS simulated IR imagery) as it drops southeast from central
NE into northeast KS between 31/00z and 31/06z. There is a multi
model signal for 1.25 inches of rainfall on this axis, which is
plausible where training could occur before the system becomes
more progressive toward 31/12z.

Three hour flash flood guidance values here are generally above
2.50 inches, though a portion of southeast NE has seen 300+
percent of normal rainfall over the past seven days. Since there
is likely to be some spread concerning where the system tracks, a
Marginal Risk was placed over this area for Day 3.
It should be noted that the instability axis extends into western
SD/western ND, and there is some model support for convection
ahead of short wave energy over southern Canada. However, not all
00z model solutions include this area as a heavy rainfall/low end
flash flood threat. If the signal persists in subsequent model
runs, the Marginal Risk may need to be extended over these areas
as well.


...Northeast...
Moisture and instability streaming northeast along a slowing cold
front could feed convection producing heavy rainfall over portions
of the Northeast, mainly across western PA into western NY state
during Day 3. An axis of 1000/2000 J/KG of MLCAPE could support
scattered to broken areas of convection extending from WV across
western PA into western NY state during the 30/18z to 31/00z time
frame. As the storms move through a plume of 1.50 inch
precipitable water air, hourly rainfall rates could peak between
1.00/1.25 inches before they begin to weaken.

The lowest flash flood guidance values were scattered over
portions of northern WV into southwest PA (generally between
1.50/2.00 inches), and slow moving storms could being to approach
these values here. After collaborating with WFOs PBZ/CTP/BUF, no
excessive area was assigned.


Hayes


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.t...
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.t...
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.t...


$$




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