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ACUS02 KWNS 281712
SWODY2
SPC AC 281711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail and gusty winds are
possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the central
High Plains.

...Synopsis...
Evolution toward a slightly more amplified flow field aloft across
the U.S. is expected Monday.  This will occur as short-wave
troughing in the belt of mid-latitude westerlies crosses the Great
Lakes region, and phases to some degree with weak troughing over the
Southeast.  Meanwhile farther west, toughing moving southeast across
the Gulf of Alaska/northeastern Pacific will amplify a bit, as it
impinges on persistent southwestern U.S. ridging.

At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front that will
move across the Great Lakes/Midwest region ahead of the
aforementioned upper trough.  Farther southwest, the boundary should
stall over the Oklahoma vicinity, and over the High Plains as it
impinges on the Rockies.  The front will focus a loosely organized
band of mainly afternoon storms, from the Great Lakes/Midwest to the
southern Plains, and also in a more isolated manner over the High
Plains region.

...Central High Plains area...
As a cold front advances slowly eastward across the Upper Great
Lakes/Midwest, the trailing portion of the front is expected to
stall across the Arkansas/Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity, and
north-northwestward from there across the High Plains.

Daytime heating of the modestly moist boundary layer in the vicinity
of the lingering front will permit some destabilization to occur,
though capping should act to hinder the degree of convective
development.  Still, it appears that a few storms may become
sustained during the late afternoon/early evening, aided by an amply
sheared kinematic environment.  With a southeasterly mean storm
motion vector expected, a few stronger cells moving off the higher
terrain and across the High Plains may be accompanied by risk for
large hail, and locally gusty/damaging winds through mid evening.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Goss.. 07/28/2019

$$


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