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ACUS11 KWNS 282146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282146
SDZ000-NDZ000-282245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Areas affected...extreme southeast North Dakota through eastern
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 282146Z - 282245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may pose some risk for isolated damaging wind gusts
and hail as they develop southeast through eastern South Dakota this
evening. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Despite being in a zone of relatively weak forcing
aloft in wake of a leading shortwave trough, the cap has weakened
sufficiently for storms to initiate along a cold front from
southeast ND into north central SD. This activity may continue
southeast through eastern South Dakota this evening. The downstream
warm sector is recovering in wake of earlier clouds and rain with
temperatures climbing to 80-85 F and 70 F dewpoints supporting 2000
J/kg MLCAPE. Wind profiles are largely unidirectional northwesterly
with 20-30 kt effective bulk shear supportive of multicell storms.
Nevertheless, the thermodynamic environment with 7-7.5 C/km
mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support a few
locally strong wind gusts and hail as activity develops through
eastern SD next few hours.

..Dial/Guyer.. 07/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45029931 46139781 46199699 45339686 43709794 43929965
            45029931



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