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AWUS01 KWNH 281008
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281605-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0683
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
607 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Areas affected...eastern SD into western MN and far southeastern
ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281006Z - 281605Z

Summary...A localized threat of flash flooding will remain across
portions of eastern SD into western MN and far southeastern ND
this morning. Additional maximum rainfall of 2-3 inches will be
possible through 16Z.

Discussion...0930Z radar imagery showed a loosely organized
convective cluster in eastern SD, moving toward the northeast. Two
storm scale mesoscale convective vortices were noted within the
cluster, one in eastern Mellette County and the other farther
north in western Faulk County. The northern MCV was associated
with the coldest cloud tops (via GOES 16 clean window IR) and
greatest lightning activity (via ENTLN plots). MUCAPE has been
decreasing as a whole with the system, but a northward advection
of low moisture through eastern SD has allowed for a modest rise
over the past 3 hours (over 500 J/kg in eastern SD) according to
the SPC mesoanalysis ending at 09Z. Current MUCAPE values were
estimated to be in the 500-1000 J/kg range and a continued gradual
weakening is expected over the next 2-4 hours.

There is still a small opportunity for flash flooding over the
next few hours, ahead of a 500 mb shortwave tough axis which
bisected ND and SD at 0930Z. While the KFSD VAD wind plot showed
850 mb winds from the southwest at ~20 kt, recent runs of the RAP
indicate backing of low level flow after 14Z as a surface low and
a southward extending trough axis approaches eastern SD, combined
with modest increase in CAPE with daytime heating. In addition,
250 mb flow is expected to become increasingly diffluent over
eastern SD ahead of a northern stream upper trough moving through
Saskatchewan combined with possible right entrance region forcing
with a jet streak forecast to be over eastern ND into northern MN
late this morning.

While the threat appears low, a few factors may combine to produce
localized flash flooding through 16Z with potential for 2-3
inches, which would be in excess of Flash Flood Guidance values
across portions of the region.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...MPX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   46789709 46069595 44839580 43619644 43059739
            43089914 43920005 46019961 46629873


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