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ACUS48 KWNS 280845
SWOD48
SPC AC 280844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The overall pattern will not change much during the Day 4-8 period.
The strong upper ridge will remain over the western half of the
CONUS with a trough persisting east of the Mississippi River. Weak
impulses will migrate through the ridge and influence thunderstorm
development over the Plains, where southerly low level flow will
allow moisture to return northward. The latest ECMWF suggests a
stronger shortwave trough may develop over the northern Plains and
shift east/southeast across the MO Valley into the mid-MS Valley
around the end of the week into the weekend. However, other guidance
is much weaker with this feature, resulting in low confidence in any
given solution. In the absence of stronger forcing mechanisms, any
severe potential is likely to be driven by subtle shortwave impulses
in northwesterly flow aloft and mesoscale processes/storm-scale
interactions, which are not well-forecast in model guidance at
longer ranges.

..Leitman.. 07/28/2019


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