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ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected at this time on Tuesday.

...Northern/Central High Plains Vicinity...

The upper ridge will remain firmly in place with the 500 mb
anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. A few impulses will
migrate through the ridge from MT/WY into parts of the northern and
central Plains. Southeasterly low level flow will advect modest
boundary layer moisture as far north and west as eastern MT/WY.
Meanwhile, a developing surface low will strengthen over AB/SK with
a surface trough extending southward through the High Plains ahead
of an eastward advancing cold front. The upslope flow regime and
subtle upper forcing should result in isolated storms anywhere from
eastern MT/WY into western ND/SD and perhaps as far south as
northeast CO and NE during the evening in a narrow corridor where
adequate instability becomes coincident with favorable shear
profiles for supercells. Depending on timing, convection could
initially be surface-based, but capping concerns beneath the strong
ridge do exist. Confidence in exact timing/location and conditional
nature of the threat will preclude severe probs at this time.

...Northeast...

The upper Great Lakes trough will continue to slowly shift
east/northeast toward the lower Great Lakes and northeastern U.S. on
Tuesday. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the trough in a moist
and unstable airmass. However, weak shear and poor lapse rates will
limit severe potential, though a few strong gusts are possible in
mainly pulse-type, heavy rain producing convective clusters.

..Leitman.. 07/28/2019

$$


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