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ACUS02 KWNS 280554
SWODY2
SPC AC 280553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail are possible Monday
afternoon and evening across portions of the central High Plains.

...Far northeast CO/southeast WY into southwest NE/northwest KS...

An upper anticyclone will be centered over the Four Corners/southern
Rockies vicinity on Monday. The associated upper ridge will extend
north/northeast across the central and northern High Plains. At the
same time, weak shortwave impulses migrating around the upper high
will result in enhancement of midlevel northwesterly flow across the
central Plains. Southeasterly upslope low level winds should bring
modest boundary layer moisture westward from northwest KS into
northeast CO/southwest NE and southeast WY. Some modest warming
aloft is possible, resulting in weak capping. However most guidance,
excepting the GFS, develops isolated storms across the region. Very
steep midlevel lapse rates beneath the upper ridge and modest,
vertically veering low level flow with long, straight hodographs
aloft indicate potential for very large hail. Additionally, a
well-mixed sub-cloud layer also could support locally strong wind
gusts from high-based supercells. Marginal probs will be introduced
for now given uncertainty in storm coverage and somewhat conditional
nature of the threat, through sig hail certainly appears possible if
storms develop.

Later in the evening, most guidance develops storms in warm
advection atop a strengthening EML with eastward extent into parts
of southwest NE/northwest KS. This activity will be elevated, but
also could support large hail.

...Midwest Vicinity...

Further east, an upper shortwave trough will slowly pivot eastward
over the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region. Clusters of convection
will likely be ongoing Monday morning along a surface cold front
from WI southwestward into MO and possibly as far southwest as OK.
Deep layer flow will generally be weak, but a band of around 30 kt
850-700 mb flow will extend from the Ozarks vicinity northeast into
MI during peak heating. Strong heating and rich boundary layer
moisture will result in moderate to strong instability downstream of
morning convection. A lack of stronger flow and weak forcing should
limit severe potential. However, if any cluster can become better
organized through cold pool generation or storm/outflow
interactions, some strong gusts are possible.

...Northeast...

Cold temperatures aloft will persist across the region as a weak
shortwave trough shift northeast. Weak deep layer westerlies and
modest lapse rates will limit storm organization despite mid 60s
dewpoints and weak to moderate instability. A few strong gusts are
possible from southern NY into southern New England, but overall
threat for organized severe convection appears low at this time.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Leitman.. 07/28/2019

$$


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