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ACUS01 KWNS 280542
SWODY1
SPC AC 280541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms could produce locally damaging wind
gusts and hail across parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon
and early this evening.

...Upper Midwest...
A shortwave ridge will move into the western Great Lakes region
today as a shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest. At the
surface, a cold front will move east-southeastward across the
eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints near 70 F should allow for destabilization during the day.
Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate just ahead of the front from
western Minnesota southward into far eastern Nebraska by mid to late
afternoon. A few additional storms may develop eastward along a warm
front from south-central Minnesota into central Wisconsin. Model
forecasts vary considerably on the distribution of instability this
afternoon but are mostly in agreement concerning the deep-layer
shear. 0-6 km shear should be in the 30 to 35 kt range suggesting
that an isolated severe threat could develop in areas that
destabilize the most. However, will retain a marginal risk due to
uncertainties concerning instability. A marginal wind damage threat
could develop as a multicell line segment moves eastward across the
region during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Bentley.. 07/28/2019

$$


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