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AWUS01 KWNH 280431
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-281000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0682
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Areas affected...far northern NE into SD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280427Z - 281000Z

Summary...Flash flooding will be possible from far northern NE
into portions of SD over the next several hours. Rainfall rates up
to 1-2 in/hr are expected to lead to 6 hour rainfall totals of 1-3
inches through 10Z.

Discussion...04Z surface observations showed a west-east oriented
stationary boundary from northern IA into southern SD, where it
connected into a 1012 mb surface low about 50 miles southwest of
PIR. The 04Z SPC mesoanalysis showed a relatively narrow axis of
weak to moderate CAPE from northern NE into far southern SD, and
eastward into northern IA, located along and south of the front.
Convective trends over the past hour (ending 04Z) have shown the
development and expansion of thunderstorms from northern Sheridan
into northwestern Cherry Counties with KUDX estimated rainfall
rates of 1 in/hr. The activity was occurring out ahead of an
eastward progressing 500 mb shortwave over western SD/NE.

As the shortwave continues east overnight, convection is expected
to expand into southern SD as it encounters the nose of a 30-35 kt
low level jet, with KLNX's VAD wind plot showing 850 mb winds
increasing roughly 10 kt since 02Z. Southerly low level flow is
expected to allow the front to lift north ahead of the surface low
as a warm front, increasing instability into portions of eastern
SD. Veering of the low level flow is expected through 10Z with the
passage of the shortwave aloft leading to better alignment with
the LFC-EL mean-layer flow. Given the stronger winds in the lower
levels, some brief training and back building of cells will be
possible despite an overall forward progression to the convective
cluster as a whole. Diffluent flow aloft may aid with the strength
of convective intensity allowing for rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
at times. 6 hour rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are forecast
through 10Z from the NE/SD border into central and eastern SD,
which would exceed lower pockets of Flash Flood Guidance, possibly
causing flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   45379783 45119701 44519662 43949690 43519761
            43089865 42840046 42740163 43010219 43400222
            43710206 44310160 44880050 45309885


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