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AWUS01 KWNH 280047
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0681
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Montana to Western South
Dakota/Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280045Z - 280430Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue to move towards the east/northeast and bring locally
heavy rainfall rates and amounts which could lead to localized
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...A moist and moderately unstable air mass is in place
along/just north of a surface front from the High Plains of
eastern Wyoming and Montana eastward into South Dakota and
Nebraska. The axis of PWs in the 1.0-1.2 inch range were roughly
coincident with CAPE values in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range...with
a mid/upper-level vorticity maximum was noted in the latest
satellite imagery extending from central Wyoming back into western
Colorado which was moving eastward. The combination of these
features was resulting in increasingly diffluent flow through the
afternoon at the upper-levels across the outlined area which
should persist into the mid-evening.  Latest IR imagery showed
gradually cooling cloud tops in convection across moving into far
western South Dakota, and visible imagery suggests increasing
updraft strength with several overshooting tops observed.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue to demonstrate somewhat
increased levels of organization into the early evening, with
multi-cell clusters potentially resulting in locally enhanced
rainfall amounts of 1-2 in/hr. The strongest upper diffluence and
the strongest deep layer wind shear should occur across the
northern portion of the outlined area, where some hi-res guidance
(e.g. WRF-NSSL) shows the potential for cold pool development and
organization of an MCS. This would result in increased heavy
rainfall potential before the complex begins to more quickly
propagate eastward later this evening. Due to the potential for
localized amounts approaching 2 inches from the strongest
convection, flash flooding is possible.

Bann

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...BOU...BYZ...CYS...GGW...GLD...LBF...
RIW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   47220383 46990316 46100338 45740257 45060114
            42780093 41850136 41600135 40700205 40250267
            40770333 42300354 43680340 44340358 44500486
            43680577 43680700 45670599 46720490


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