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ACUS01 KWNS 280031
SWODY1
SPC AC 280030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginally severe wind gusts and
hail will be possible this evening from the central High Plains into
the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains/Upper Midwest...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge in the central
and northern Plains with a subtle shortwave trough in the central
Rockies. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the shortwave
trough early this evening. At the surface, a lee trough is present
from western Nebraska southward into eastern Colorado. Surface
dewpoints along the trough are in mid 50s to lower 60s F with the
RAP analyzing a pocket of moderate instability across northeastern
Colorado and western Nebraska. Forecast soundings across the area
early this evening show moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse
rates suggesting a marginal severe threat will be possible. Storm
mode is expected to remain multicelluar as a short line segment
moves eastward across the central High Plains over the next few
hours.

Further to the east, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture
exists from central and eastern Nebraska into Iowa and southern
Wisconsin. The RAP is analyzing strong instability along this
corridor with MLCAPE values in the 2,500 to 3,500 J/kg range. In
spite of this, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are weak. For
this reason, any cells that can develop along the instability
corridor this evening, should struggle. At the most, a few strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible.

..Broyles.. 07/28/2019

$$


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