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ACUS01 KWNS 271951
SWODY1
SPC AC 271950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AREA WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail risk continues from the
central/northern High Plains to Michigan this afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
Aside from minor line adjustments, no substantial changes appear
necessary at this time, as the outlook areas and forecast reasoning
continue to reflect the latest expectations.  The greatest change to
the outlook lines has been to trim the MRGL/5% lines a bit northward
over the northern Illinois vicinity, focusing risk a bit farther
north in southern Wisconsin later this afternoon and early evening.

Otherwise, storms are expected to continue to develop/move across
the central and northern High Plains area and into South Dakota and
Nebraska this afternoon and evening, where isolated severe risk is
expected.  Other storms developing near and ahead of the Upper Great
Lakes cool front will also pose continued/isolated severe risk into
the evening hours.

..Goss.. 07/27/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019/

...IA/WI/IL/MI...
A strong upper trough is rotating eastward across Ontario today,
with neutral to slightly rising heights in the midlevels across most
of the Great Lakes and northern Plains.  A weak cold front extends
from Upper MI and WI westward across IA/NE/SD.  Weak forcing aloft,
coupled with weak low-level convergence will limit confidence in
coverage of storms along the front from eastern SD/NE eastward.
However, the strongest signal in the morning CAM guidance for
vigorous thunderstorm development would be over southeast
WI/northeast IL and southwestern Lower MI. Forecast soundings show
modest CAPE values, but steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient
flow aloft to support a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the stronger
storms that form anywhere along the front. Will maintain MRGL risk,
but will re-evaluate at 20z.

...WY/CO/SD/NE...
Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper trough moving across UT into
western CO.  Weak forcing in advance of this system, coupled with
sufficient moisture/instability, will promote the development of
scattered thunderstorms over the high terrain of central CO and
southern WY this afternoon.  These storms will spread eastward into
the plains later today.  MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and a deeply
mixed boundary layer will promote strong downdrafts in the most
intense cores, along with some risk of hail.

$$


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